I originally wrote about this subject over four years ago. Since that time, I have noticed that when I publish a new article about radio, people seem to fall into one of two different camps. There are those who say radio’s days are numbered — or over, and those who think going back to the way it was will solve everything.
“We can’t solve problems by using the same kind of thinking
we used when we created them.”
-Albert Einstein
Lots of Change
When I think back to the days when AM radio rocked my world, to today, where Alexa serves up whatever my mood desires, much has changed.
“The key to failure is to hang on to the belief that things have to be
‘the way they ought to be.’
The key to success is to be able to deal with things
as they really are.”
-Roy H. Williams, The Wizard of Ads
Which brings me back to taking another look at the question:
“Are we the solution, or the problem?”
…when it comes to the future of radio?
Radio’s Big 3 Areas of Dysfunction?
I’m sure that you have your own thoughts on this, but the sense I have from reading articles about today’s radio industry from all over the world, along with reader comments, are that these three things are very important to the future of radio:
- Commercials. Radio’s commercial spot loads are too big. The 60 and 30-second ad lengths are over. Radio needs to re-think the way it monetizes itself OTA (over the air) and the creation of radio ads needs to be a specialty in every radio station.
- Companionship. Alexa is convenient and we even chat with one another, but I don’t consider “her” a companion. Radio needs to fulfill that social need for the listener.
- Quality vs. Quantity. The radio industry is focused on consolidation, where a few large media companies control more frequencies. When the game today is all about providing a better experience – quality over quantity.
The original benchmarks of radio like weather, breaking news, and school cancellations, for example, are often much more efficiently handled by other platforms. Radio needs to re-think what it can do that others can’t, and then do it. Radio needs to compliment today’s other forms media, as it no longer is the sole source of information.
What Are Your Most Prized Possessions?
Recently, a British online magazine asked men and women about their 20 most prized possessions. What you will see when you look at these lists are, that men gravitate to expensive tangible things and women covet items that hold emotional value. As you view the lists for both genders, take note of the one thing that is missing on both.
Women Men
Family Photos Home
Home Family Photos
Wedding Ring Car
Engagement Ring Wedding Ring
Family Pet Photographs of deceased relatives
Photographs of deceased relatives Family Pet
Jewelry Laptop
Car Photographs of significant other
Childhood Pictures Smartphone
Laptop Books
Photographs of significant other Vinyl Records
Children’s artwork CD Collection
Photographs of deceased friends Tablet
Clothes Television
Books Photographs of deceased friends
Tablet Golf/Fishing Equipmnt/Bicycle
Baby Clothes Childhood Pictures
A favorite book Internet
Parent’s wedding rings Jewelry
Missing from both lists is RADIO.
Radio Reaches a Mass Audience
The Council on Foreign Relations tells the story of radio’s impact on the world this way:
“Italian inventor Guglielmo Marconi received a U.S. patent for radio technology in 1904, three years after he claimed to have sent the first transatlantic radio signal. Radio was the first technology that could instantaneously communicate to a mass audience. Because it allowed continuous, up-to-date news and entertainment for people regardless of their income or literacy levels, it became immensely popular. In many parts of the world today, radio remains a dominant source of news and entertainment; it is considered to be the most important means of mass communication in Africa, where literacy rates are relatively low and electricity access is inconsistent. In 2010, an estimated 44,000 radio stations operated around the globe.”
How did we squander such a dominating position in people’s lives, so that we are no longer considered a “prized possession?”
Out Damn Spot
It was seven years ago I wrote a blog titled “Out, damn’d spot!” Yet, here we are in 2023 and radio station commercial loads have increased.
I’m sure you have noticed that YouTube offers viewers a chance to “Skip Ads” when you are looking to play a video; that should be a hint that massive commercial breaks are over!
Likewise, ads that are out-of-place on targeted radio formats should be banned. Creativity in radio spot creation is virtually non-existent. Remember when program directors had the final say about EVERYTHING that went on-the-air? We need those kinds of gatekeepers back.
And if all of this is important for our AM/FM radio signals, it becomes even more critical for our radio streams over the internet.
Community & Companionship
Radio has the power to own the communities that it operates in, and provide real companionship for the listener. Pureplay streamers can’t, and won’t be able to do this, as they also lack personality. Alexa and Siri will never enter the Radio Hall of Fame, with the likes of:
I rest my case.
DickTaylorBlog 
Over 38 radio stations in my area and not one programs to baby boomers. The news talk station airs 42 minutes of commercials an hour during drive time. Corporate owners only want the fast buck. The FCC killed radio and corporate owners are the undertakers.
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WOW !!! 42 minutes of ads and 20 minutes of news/talk is amazing. Talk about killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.
-DT
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Jim, you’re now the third commenter that has reported local stations airing over 40 minutes of commercials per hour.
So, let’s take the #1 one thing listeners say is wrong with AM/FM radio and make it worse.
Radio needs to listen to the people it claims to be serving.
-DT
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OK Dick, I get it and generally agree. However, I believe Alexa and other devices are the future of radio..as stations need to stream to retain listeners. There is a movement to remove or lessen the importance of radio in cars which was the one last holdout for the medium. Few people have radios in their homes these days.
You stated, “Radio needs to re-think what it can do that others can’t, and then do it. Radio needs to compliment today’s other forms media, as it no longer is the sole source of information.” But did not offer any suggestions….maybe a future post?
I see the same problems in the newspaper industry. These days most local newspapers are owned by large conglomerates that are headquartered in a different state. It has been my belief that if a newspaper finds a successful formula for success in one market it would use the same technique throughout its chain. But that success formula apparently hasn’t been found as newspapers continue to decline.
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Radio finds itself in serious trouble when other options present themselves in the automobile that are as easy to access as AM/FM radio.
See Jim Cridland’s comments in this thread.
-DT
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Well said. Once upon a time competition drove innovations in all phases of the Radio business. New ideas were embraced. Reduction in Force has resulted in a reduction of creativity.
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It really is very sad Hal.
-DT
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Since we’re in an era of “accountability” perhaps we should call out the folks who are accountable for the state of radio today – there are many: All industry trades that failed to report how digital was eating radio’s lunch on multiple levels is a good place to start. Keeping conventions filled was their primary concern. (Joel Denver’s All Access and deceased Jim Carnegie of Radio Business Report are the two exceptions.)
CEOs of groups who failed to upgrade operations to deliver things that people could not find online within 10-seconds is the next. Their cries of we have “compelling content” were as damaging as the next fellow’s missteps.
President of RAP Gary Fries, who for years kept the rhetoric flowing with buzzwords and lack of action got away with no accountability at all. A few of his quotes.
July, 2005 on the flat revenue for Q2 2005:
“The Radio industry is very actively and aggressively pursuing
new technologies, formats, and platforms which will drive the
business as we move forward into the second half of 2005 and
into 2006.”
July 5, 2005 – May Revenue: “Looking forward, we anticipate that
Radio revenue will continue to progress as a direct result of the
significant programming, operational, and business advancements
that are being implemented by the industry.”
June 3, 2005 – April Revenue: “Radio’s growth is on the horizon
as recently introduced technologies, programming formats, and
advertising platforms take root and propel the industry forward.”
April 28, 2005 – March Revenue: “Radio is evolving at a rapid
pace, both technologically and creatively… Growth should
remain steady throughout the year, as the medium and its
advertisers explore how to maximize the advantages emerging
from this new landscape.”
Besides throwing away nearly 10-years promoting HD Radio the industry fell down multiple times trying to do digital on the cheap. There is no such animal.
While digital companies create new versions of their apps, advertising modules and content every few years, when’s the last time anyone can remember radio upgrading programming, commercials or operational strategy? It still needs to be done. The last major format change was Sports Talk in 1989.
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Thank You Ken for showing how the radio industry squandered its dominant position with its listeners.
-DT
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I agree, Dick… Everything has come together in “the perfect storm” to destroy radio. First automation, then Voice Tracking, followed by Bill Clinton’s consolidation (TelCom96), and now Artificial Intelligence. And as for spot creativity.. it’s become non-existent today. Not to mention a heavy spot load in the first place. Of course radio is failing. No one wants to listen to this trash… And as for companionship.. that’s absent too. The radio industry HAS INDEED squandered its dominance. No, not all at once, it came in slowly. And it all started .. with automation. So, is it too late for radio? No. It’s NOT too late .. but we’ll never have the dominance we once had.
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Agreed Doug.
-DT
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You hit the mark. I have not listened to Terrestrial radio in 11 years. It was not compelling , it was saturated with spots, on air talent was limited in being live and local, and they still just read lines no personality. The distinction of being a community identifier was extremely limited and most were just he the top of the hour ID. Recently I broke my embargo and tuned into a station I worked at 46 years ago. The owner was on the air. The production was mostly very good. The problem? I heard only 3 songs in an hour,to their credit they hada 5 min local newscast with interviews. and I was saturated with 40 minutes of spots. My guess is that the populace tuned in only for the local news at the bottom of the house and then put in their own music device This was in Gainesville, Texas KGAF. The city has changed in size like most do,but sadly the station locally owned,adopted corporate radio tactics.
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Ray, you’re the second person who’s reported that the local radio station they tuned into was airing 40+ minutes of commercials. Imagine if radio had a “skip ads” button, what do you think listeners would do???
Thank You for sharing your recent listening experience.
-DT
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Sadly, Ray is lying. I work for KGAF. We run a maximum of 14 units an hour including network clearance spots for news and our stop sets are a mix of 30s and 60s.
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Unfortunately,the “employee” of KGAF is trying to “C.Y.A.” I started at 7am to 8am, had timed the sets, yeah I actually did that! My math is very good and to check if i was correct I recorded the hour!. I understand if you work at a station that was mentioned,you will not admit to the super heavy spot load., They can have a mix load of “30’s” and “60’s” , its the number of them per stop set. Nice try. you have a career in politics.
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Thank You for amplifying your previous comment Ray.
-DT
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Seems there is a dispute as to what’s what. Ray says he’s recorded KGAF’s 7 – 8am hour and did the math.
-DT
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A fascinating bit of data from Edison Research: showing the effect of Apple CarPlay and Android Auto on car audio listening.
It seems that AM/FM is still the #1 audio source; but total listening goes down by a third. Everything else – music streaming, podcasts – doubles.
It’s the effect of a decent user-experience, of course. Make it simpler to listen to other things, and people will. It’s why things like Radioplayer – that aim to make a decent user-experience for all of radio – are so important.
As a case in point, I was in Adelaide over the weekend, and the hire car had Android Auto in it. I didn’t listen to the radio once; just asking YouTube Music to play music from “My Mix”.
How did that compare with the radio? We did some listening in a café – Power FM, I think it was – but on a Sunday morning it was just non-stop music, punctuated by one quite eager local news bulletin, and a number of commercials.
Non-stop music really isn’t much of an alternative to “My Mix”, which is also non-stop music.
Radio’s selling-point – a shared experience and a human connection – is important here, you’d think.
-James Cridland (from his email newsletter)
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I’m afraid I’ll be worm food before this conversation ends, Dick. You’re pointing out things that we’ve known since somewhere around 1996 when investors decided that radio was a great Wall Street investment. How’s that treating you now? The delivery system may change, the competition increases and yet no one wants to burst through the pack. Is there a successful brand for audio in 2023? Let’s bring in Taylor Swift and see. She’s single-handedly accelerated the music business, the movie business and now the NFL. Her aura may fade some day but she’s a phenomenal presence in our over saturated world.
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Taylor Swift has now eclipsed The Beatles, I’ve read.
Dave, I agree with all you wrote. Radio is now reaping what Wall Street investment has sown.
-DT
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Radio, even AM radio, is not going away, but with each day it becomes increasingly irrelevant. It has become the equivalent of elevator music – it’s there and it provides some atmosphere, but one really doesn’t care if it’s there or not and it has no cultural currency.
Radio (from a quality standpoint) was doomed from the moment it was deregulated and we allowed big corporations to buy up hundreds of stations. They overpaid and put themselves in such debt, the only way to even try and survive was to de-emphasize talent and cater to the widest (lowest) common denominator and give us fast food radio that’s listened to in the background. And so today we have boring, unimaginative radio with unlistenable spots and unsustainable debt service that has resulted in Audacy’s stock price at 35 cents AFTER a reverse split (9x?) and iHeart’s stock price at $2.14, down from a high of $27.36 in June of ’21.
Music radio was once the core of the music culture and it gave that up. It responded to streaming by copying the weakness of streaming instead of differentiating by providing personality and value add. Via requests and dedications, radio once was a limited form of social media. Some of that may be outdated, but radio should have developed a form of modern social media. How is it that back in the day the highest paid DJ’s or best known DJ’s were mostly on at night (Dan Ingram being an exception) and today, night time ratings are the worst performing dayparts?
Frankly, I think it has become silly to talk about this because radio is not going to change. It will become the equivalent of Muzak plus absurdly high spot loads, and whatever revenue they can still get out of it, they will, but it will be very inexpensive to run because most talent will be eliminated. It will survive off the people who still have the radio habit and don’t want to stream, but there are fewer and fewer of them: in the U.S., streaming now constitutes 85.6% of music industry revenue and there are 92 million paid subscribers, plus about another $3 billion generated from ad-supported and other streaming. When someone is streaming, they’re not listening to the radio and as cars are replaced, just about everyone is going to have streaming capability in their cars. Radio is not going to be the first choice when the programming is so awful.
I used to work for a company in media and they had another business of controlled circulation magazines. I once heard an executive talk about the articles as “the shit between the ads” and I really disrespected him for that, because at least some of those magazines were editorially sound. But really, that’s what music radio has become: the shit between the ads. And whereas talk radio used to be fun and covered all kinds of topics, today it’s mostly QAnon conspiracy nonsense. So talk radio has become that as well. So at this point, radio station owners are milking their stations and will continue to do so until they die. But radio stations are actually dying at a relatively low rate and in fact, there are still far more operating radio stations today (17,371 as of 3/31) than in 1970 (6751 stations) or in 1991 (10,830).
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Martin, thank you for all you wrote.
Everything you’ve talked about has been my experience in radio (1968 – present). You raise an excellent point regarding the number of radio stations currently on the air. No one ever did the math on how many of them serving a single market could economically survive based on ad dollars available in the market. Today, more of a local advertiser’s ad dollars are being spent on social media and search, making the available dollars for radio even less.
Night radio personalities were the one that hooked me on radio as a career. Today, they’re non-existent.
As radio eliminated the personalities (the real attraction at most radio stations) they set themselves up for being a bad streaming service, allowing pureplays to easily takeover their music position.
Which makes writing this blog a challenge, now almost ten years since the day I published my first article.
-DT
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Ad $$$: If we look at the decline in ad dollars going even to the top rated stations as compared to what it once was, it’s mostly a pretty sad picture, and this doesn’t even account for inflation.
About the only station that is doing better than it did 10 years ago is WTOP-FM in D.C. which is up 8.4% from 2012 to 2022 and did an extraordinary $70 million in 2022, but they’re a special case because they get so much political advertising.
KISS-FM, Los Angeles (CHR): -22.4% to $44.1m
WLTW(FM), NYC (Lite AC): -84.1% to $35.1m
WHTZ(FM), NYC (CHR): -20.5% to $33m
WINS (AM-FM), NYC (News): -33.4% to $32.1m
WBBM-AM/WCFS-FM, Chicago (News): -30% to $32m
WFAN-FM, NYC (Sports/Talk): -22.9% to $32m
WCBS-AM, NYC (News): -33.6% to $31.4m
KFI-AM, Los Angeles (News/Talk): -45.4% to $25.1m
(WBZ Boston, KBIG-FM Los Angeles and WSB-AM/WSBB-FM Atlanta are also on the top list for 2022, but weren’t in 2012).
What would be interesting is if someone could compare revenue erosion to cume erosion and see if they track.
Meanwhile, CBS spinning off the radio group to Entercom (Audacy) seems like a genius move in retrospect.
——-
I believe that radio could get back on track, but there’s a short window before an entire generation of people (and the generations that follow) are completely out of the habit of listening to OTA commercial radio. But management needs to “let go” and let talent do their thing. They need to hire air personalities who have the skills to go viral (but not for the wrong reasons). The music programming should be geared to “this is what you should be listening to when you stream”. And it needs to develop talk formats that appeal to people under 50 and under 35.
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Great thoughts, Martin. It seems the best marketing tool in 2023 is still word of mouth. Radio could use more things (people, programming) that would get people to talk (in a positive way) about the medium. When PPM hit the ratings world it was suggested that putting the commercial breaks into either the “bow tie” position in the clock or the “hour glass” position would be optimum. As we’ve learned here, budgetary (and revenue) issues have created those interminably long commercial sets, with diminishing value for the advertiser and increasing irritation for the listener. I’m hoping that some kind of audience research will surface to offer up a better user experience, and increased value for the advertiser. The current ratings system is a problem offering little value for the advertiser and zero value for the listener. It’s only one of radio’s issues – but in my opinion, the dollars that companies pay to the ratings monopoly isn’t helping the medium one bit.
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Radio is like an old rusty bucket, full of little holes. Everything is draining out of it.
Thanks for weighing in on this topic Dave.
-DT
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Well, that rusty ol’ bucket still has life left in it, Dick. The competing services lack in content and connectivity-for now. This won’t always be the case so it’s time to plug those holes. Funny you should mention a bucket though. Buckets have been around for centuries, and no one’s found a replacement.
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Martin, your snapshot of how revenues have eroded along with cumes is illuminating. I know that at radio stations I’ve managed, some of them aren’t making in a whole hour what we sold a single 60-second ad for. It’s shocking.
Sadly, I fear that radio has dug a hole so deep, that it can’t afford to hire the talent to turn things around on a local level.
I just finished reading an article on climate change and then your new comment popped up. Just as the radio industry didn’t take the warning of a decade ago, neither did world leaders when it came to saving the planet. Both are in the same sorry state of affairs.
Thank You Martin for doing the research on revenue erosion of America’s leading radio stations.
-DT
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>>>The current ratings system is a problem offering little value for the advertiser and zero value for the listener.
It also cannot be accurate even aside from the issue of too small sample sizes and PPM’s measuring such things as passive listening in retail. Here’s why:
In the ratings released to the public (for NY), only stations with a 0.1 or greater share are rated and in a typical month there are 52 of them. If one adds all those shares, it usually sums to between 86 to 89%. Let’s take best case, 89%. That means all the remaining stations and streams have a total 11% share, but no single one can have more than a .09 share. For arguments sake, let’s say they each are so close to a .1 that we can consider them to be a .1. There would have to be 110 of them. There’s nowhere close to that. Unless I’m missing something, that means share calculations can’t be correct.
And if I’m an advertiser or agency, I don’t (or shouldn’t) care about share and I also don’t really care about cume either. What I care about is cost per thousand and how responsive is the targeted demo to what I’m trying to sell. But I’d also be concerned about clutter and having competitive ads adjacent to mine, which radio used to take into account. So why radio doesn’t do what it used to do, which is to raise the rate card to limit the number of spots, which benefits both the advertiser and the listener, I have no idea.
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Martin, the whole ratings system is a bit confusing for most. I had access to Media Monitors, a near-real-time evaluation of how many PPM were tuned to a given station. Our station, when it had an AVERAGE of 14 meters per month, was #1 when the weeklies came out. This was 10 years ago and it was Los Angeles, where the total number of PPM was around 3000. I don’t know what the sample is today, but you can do the percentage on the nearly 13 million residents to figure out the listeners per meter. If our average dropped below 12 we knew we were due for a share drop. 14 meters (average) came out to a 5.5 share for the station. Best share in the market. We had one bad month when a Spanish station, carrying the World Cup Soccer match beat us. Our station is still #1 in L.A. and it’s doing a lot of things right, but gaming the ratings system has benefited them immensely. You can bet that when those commercials hit, the listener is off to somewhere else for 7 or 8 minutes.
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Could commercial radio survive if it had to depend on listener donations, like Christian and Public radio? I doubt it.
Martin, you raise great questions.
I have no idea either.
-DT
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I don’t think so because non-commercial radio is also having severe financial issues and from what I’ve read, is laying off people, discontinuing online-only shows and taking other measures to reduce costs.
It’s a shame because some of these stations attempt to do far more than commercial radio. I don’t know what the issues are: whether streaming is negatively impacting them as well, whether the audiences are aging out and disappearing or whether the demographic of people who have donated in the past are facing their own economic issues (or spending that part of their budget on streaming or satellite subscriptions).
And traditionally, only 2% of listeners ever donated.
I also think the audiences have been dumbed down to want fast food radio, even while complaining about it.
I think a station like WFUV in NYC does a pretty good job of being a quality music station, but it usually only garners around a 0.2-0.3 share (including streaming). That of course assumes that the ratings are accurate. And I’ve noticed that WNYC’s ratings are also in decline, but maybe they’ll pickup once the election cycle gets fully under way.
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I fear you may be right Martin.
-DT
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There seemed to be a dispute between commenters Ray Whitworth and Bill Turner as to the number of units per hour KGAF runs. Bill Turner said he works at KGAF and stated: “We run a maximum of 14 units an hour including network clearance spots for news and our stop sets are a mix of 30s and 60s.” Ray said he was “was saturated with 40 minutes of spots” when he listened.
Sounded like it might be interesting to listen to KGAF and hear an hour for myself. I did that on October 31, 2023, from 6am to 7am.
I heard 23-units of ads in that hour and one very long sports promo. If you ad the 25 additional sponsor mentions in that promo, you might say you heard 48 ads. I counted that promo as a unit that makes up the 23-units.
I found it interesting that Steve Eberhart did the very same LONG BIT in both the 6 to 6:30am and 6:30-7am portions of the hour. It sounded so identical, it made me wonder if he had recorded it and just played it back twice.
The local newscaster was good and even did OBITS.
So, Ray & Bill, the answer to how many ads or units run per hour on KGAF isn’t 40 or 14, but somewhere in the middle. Since most of the units were minute-long ads, over a third of hour is devoted to advertising, with two thirds devoted to entertainment/information.
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Radio commercials today are basically worthless. To the radio content providers of such commercials, as well as to listeners. Annoying the listener enough to get a sale is a dead-in-the-water strategy now. Listeners with money WILL pay for advertising-free content. Listeners without money are of no interest to advertisers anyway.
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Valid observation Jack.
-DT
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