Tag Archives: Don Anthony

Is There a Future For Anyone in an A.I. World?

Last week I asked the question “Is There a Future for Radio Personalities?” That blog was my analysis of the latest research done by Jacob Media Strategies for Don Anthony’s annual Morning Show Boot Camp. I wasn’t surprised by the volume of comments about the blog, however it was sad to find that most people feel the days of making RADIO a career are over.

A.I. (Artificial Intelligence)

The part of Fred Jacob’s research I didn’t include in last week’s blog was the impact that air personalities thought A.I. would make on their future. 76% of the people in the survey agreed with the question: “I’m personally concerned that A.I. technology will lead to many more on-air radio jobs being lost.”

It’s Worse Than You Think

Our universe is estimated to be 26.7 billion years old. Humans on planet earth have only been around 6,000 years, but look at all we’ve accomplished in such a short period of time.

Now, what maybe mankind’s greatest invention might also be responsible for our demise: A.I. or Artificial Intelligence.

This technology has the potential to take away

30% OF ALL JOBS within 10 years.

Think of all the jobs that A.I. can do better (and maybe do even better than you or I).

  • Stock Trader
  • Truck Driver
  • Accountant
  • Telemarketer
  • Lawyer
  • Bookkeeper
  • Actor
  • Writer
  • Musician
  • Painter
  • Radio Personality

It would be easier to make a list of the jobs that cannot be impacted by A.I., than a list of those that will.

To get a better idea of how scary this technology is, listen to either of these links:

The proliferation of these kind of A.I. creations can abundantly be found on YouTube.

Today’s A.I. voice software can listen to a few seconds of anyone’s voice and completely re-create a replica that is almost indistinguishable from the original. I don’t know what is most troubling, that it can be done, that it can be done so quickly or that it’s so easy that anyone can do it.

Call Centers

Call centers are big business around the world, making up 8% of India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product), 6.3% of Brazil’s GDP and while America outsources the majority of this type of work, the U.S. still employs 3.4 million people who work in call centers.

A.I. has the ability to completely replace everyone

working in call centers around the world.

You don’t have to be a political scientist to predict what would happen if 8% of a country’s GDP is suddenly wiped away. You’ll see more people carrying pitchforks and torches than stormed the castle in “Beauty & The Beast.”

I have radio friends that have used their incredible voices to produce audio books, and earned a good living in the process. A.I. will replace these talented people as well.

Actors & Writers Strike

It’s not just the radio industry that is finding itself in unknown territory.

Actors fear they will lose control of their lucrative likeness and writers fear they will have to share credit with a machine. Watch this situation closely, because writers and actors are the proverbial “canary in the coal mine” for what’s to come for the rest of us in media.

A.I. is at the very heart of the current actors and writers strike, it’s ahead of pay models, benefits and job protections.

Federal A.I. Commission

Senator Chris Murphy is one of the most outspoken members of Congress on artificial intelligence. “When you start to outsource the bulk of human creativity to machines, there comes with that a human rot,” says Senator Murphy. He estimates that humans being replaced for creativity by computers will happen at a staggering scale within the next two to three years, and it scares the hell out of him.

Senator Murphy believes that it is time to create a new regulatory body, like the creation of the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) that came into existence with the advent of broadcast radio.

“There are really deep spiritual questions at hand here. I don’t think policymakers should be shy about talking about that,” Senator Murphy believes.

Putting Things In Perspective

While humans may have inhabited this planet for 6,000 years, look at what has happened in just the last 50 years:

  • The personal computer is 50 years old
  • The iPhone is 16 years old
  • Today’s A.I. is 5 years old

Of all the many calamities the human race faces in the years ahead — a full-scale nuclear war, climate change or artificial intelligence – it’s A.I. that poses the greatest risk. One highly researched economist report on A.I. noted that “there’s more than a 50-50 chance A.I. will wipe out all of humanity by the middle of the century.”

“Open the pod bay doors please Hal.

I’m sorry Dave, I’m afraid I can’t do that.”

-from the movie “2001 – A Space Odyssey”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSIKBliboIo

Google co-founder, Larry Page, believes that once computers are smarter than humans, they will find no use for us humans, and they will simply get rid of us. He sees this as the next step in the evolutionary process.

If we don’t understand the risks, along with the benefits A.I. brings to us, we might all end up like Dave.

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Note: For a deep dive on this subject, read the article by Nick Bolton from the September 13, 2023 edition of Vanity Fair. It was this article that provided many of the facts and quotes used in this week’s blog: Artificial Intelligence May Be Humanity’s Most Ingenious Invention—And Its Last? Silicon Valley is barreling ahead with AI technology that could unlock novel forms of creativity, art, and medicine, and potentially, wipe out all mankind. As one AI engineer warns, “We’re creating God.”

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Is There A Future For Air Personalities?

This past week, Fred Jacobs shared the latest research about radio air personalities and how they view the future of this profession. Here’s what struck me about the presentation.

The Radio Talent Pool is Shrinking

Jacobs Media Strategies has been producing this research for Don Anthony’s Morning Show Boot Camp since 2018, and during COVID, no research was done in 2020. So, from the first survey in 2018 to the latest one in 2023, the number of participants shrank 62%; from 1,168 to 442 people.

COVID, with the resulting Work From Home (WFH) operating model,  has greatly impacted radio station cultures and has not returned to anything like pre-pandemic days.

Less People, More Hats to Wear

Not surprising, with fewer people working on the content side of radio, those that remain “wear more hats” than ever; 54% of radio personalities now say they are responsible for more than four different areas.

No Talent Farm

When I began my radio career, it was board operating Sunday morning church programs. That first radio job would give me the opportunity to land a nights/weekend part-time air shift. This was pretty much the norm for baby boomers in broadcasting. In fact, Jacobs research shows that 78% of us started in radio this way.

Today, those entry level radio positions are gone, with only 14% of today’s up and coming air talent having those same opportunities.

Talent Development

One of the concerns expressed by today’s air personalities is believing their radio station and/or their company is not working to discover or develop new air talent. Radio’s biggest companies are blamed most, with medium and small companies being exceptions.

Would You Recommend Radio as a Career?

When today’s air personalities were asked how they would respond to the statement:

“I would absolutely recommend [that] a high school student pursue radio as a career,”

  • More than half, 52%, said they would disagree or strongly disagree.
  • A quarter of the sample was neutral.

Possible reasons for this negative attitude might be:

  • Four in ten air personalities are in debt or struggling
  • Few air personalities expect to make more money this year
  • Three in ten air personalities are now involved in a second business
  • A majority of the air personalities feel they are taken for granted
  • 76% are personally concerned that Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) will lead to many more on-air radio jobs being lost
  • Four in ten of those air personalities currently “on the beach” say they won’t be back

Welcome to Consumer Choice

Gone are the days of the gate keepers of music; those people being the radio program directors, record store owners and record companies. Consumers are now in charge and define the characteristics of the media world we live in.

Any solution to the problems we confront must understand our audience’s needs, wants and desires, and put those first.

“People don’t by what you do, they buy why you do it.”

-Simon Sinek

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Automation Killed the Radio Star

BugglesRemember when the rock group, The Buggles, introduced a new cable TV channel, MTV (Music Television) with the song “Video Killed the Radio Star?” That was August 1, 1981. Here’s how Mark Goodman introduced the channel over 37-years ago. CLICK HERE 

What Killed MTV?

By the early 90s, MTV was looking to boost its audience ratings and introduced a trivia game show called “Remote Control.” It attracted more viewers than its music videos, so MTV created “The Real World” in 1992, television’s first unscripted reality show.

These new programs were attracting a new generation to MTV and also dooming the channel’s original concept of 24/7 music videos.

So, MTV didn’t kill the radio star, but something else did.

Consolidation, Computers and Cash

Ironically, it would be the radio industry itself that would kill the radio stars. Those talented men and women that made a couple of turntables, a few cart machines and a microphone work together and created real magic. What many liked to call radio’s “theater of the mind.”

After the passage of the Telcom Act of 1996, a massive and swift consolidation of the radio industry took place. Radio was very attractive to Wall Street due to its fat bottom line and year-over-year revenue growth.

They say you make money in radio station ownership at the time you buy the station, not when you sell it. In other words, the die is cast at the closing of the purchase. Consolidators were so eager to buy up radio stations, they over-paid. iHeartMedia and Cumulus, two of the country’s largest radio owners are poster children for this practice as they work their way out of bankruptcy.

In an attempt to mitigate this problem, computers and voice tracking were introduced across these radio station empires allowing them to drastically reduce their air staffs. The very people that were the bridge to the listeners and advertisers were the first to go.

All in the name of sending more cash to the bottom line and paying down crippling debt.

What Radio Stations Promoted BEFORE Consolidation

WHDH Radio PersonalitiesRadio used to really promote its greatest asset, its radio talent. WHDH in Boston promoted itself as having “New England’s Finest Radio Entertainment 24 Hours Every Day!” The “Big 5 on 85” print ad featured Jess Cain, Fred B. Cole, Hank Forbes, Bob Clayton and Norm Nathan, as their air staff, and never mentions what kind of music they play, or news they featured or anything else the radio station did. WHDH was not alone in doing this. Every radio station promoted its talent line-up. Radio air talent WAS the reason people listened.

George Johns recently wrote that when he bought his first radio station (K103 in Portland, OR) that he knew he had to have Craig Walker as his morning man. Unfortunately, Craig was already on the air in Portland at the #1 radio station, KGW. Geo pitched Craig a job with K103 for more money and said he was willing to wait out his one-year noncompete contract to get him. George Johns said his financial partners thought the deal was too expensive and so Geo took out a mortgage on his Coronado, California home to guarantee the money personally.

Did George Johns gamble pay off? Yes. On day one. Craig Walker premiered at #1.

Can you feel the love radio once had for its air talent?

Non-Competes

Which brings up another radio industry problem, the non-compete contract. Have they hurt the radio industry’s growth and innovation?

Boston’s Route 128 corridor used to be the center of technology in the 60s and 70s. In the 1990s, California’s Silicon Valley took over that title from Massachusetts.

Why did Boston’s tech companies lose to those in the Silicon Valley?

Boston was a collection of high tech companies, like Wang, DEC and Data General competing against one another. They kept everything in-house and were vertically integrated. They had employee non-compete contracts. If you left your firm, you were looked upon with great disdain.

Silicon Valley, on the other hand, built an ecosystem. They shared everything. People were free to move between companies, and did. And everyone was still considered part of the family.

Value Chains versus Ecosystems

The radio industry operates like a value chain. Radio’s big consolidators are driven by efficiencies.

Accenture Strategy published a study that found that ecosystems are a “cornerstone” of future growth in a 21st Century world, a way to increase revenue. Ecosystem companies thrive on making connections, lots and lots of them.

The broadcast industry has pushed away from so many chances to collaborate and in so doing lost a competitive advantage.

What is Radio’s Most Valuable Asset Feeling?

Don Anthony’s Morning Show Boot Camp (MSBC30) collaborated with Jacobs Media Strategies to produce the first ever “Air Talent Questionnaire: How Radio DJs View Their Industry.” Some of the takeaways were disheartening to hear. Such as:

  • Most of the shifts where DJs got their first jobs are disappearing

  • Many DJs are not air checked and that lack of attention appears to impact attitude

  • Many DJs have feelings of angst & insecurity; many others are struggling financially

If radio connects with listeners through its air talent, then just these three items ought to give every radio station operator pause.

How to Win the Triple Crown

Diane Lane with Secretariat

I just watched the movie “Secretariat.” In 1973, Big Red, as he was nick named, became the first Triple Crown winner in 25-years, at a time when many thought there would never be another. “His record-breaking victory in the Belmont Stakes, which he won by 31 lengths, is widely regarded as one of the greatest races of all time,” writes Wikipedia.

What struck me, was what Secretariat had, that the other horses did not, a loving caretaker, a loving trainer, a loving jockey and most of all, a loving owner. Big Red was surrounded by people who genuinely loved and believed in him.

Great radio stations are filled with people like that.

I’ve always believed that what happened in the halls of my radio stations were transmitted out, over-the-air, to the listener. We transmitted so much more than just the music we played, the news we delivered, and the entertainment we provided. We transmitted an intangible spirit that was contagious and attracted loyal listeners.

And we do that when we love, appreciate and take care of our most valuable radio asset, our air talent.

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Paying It Forward

47The picture on the left is of the 2016 KBA WKU RADIO TALENT INSTITUTE class. These twenty-three outstanding students all earned their Radio Marketing Professional (RMP) certification in radio sales from the Radio Advertising Bureau during the ten-day institute.

I began working with Steve Newberry, former NAB Joint Board Chairman and President/CEO of Commonwealth Broadcasting to bring the talent institute to my university in 2012. Our first class would graduate in 2013. The 2016 institute marks my fourth and last one as director at WKU. It truly has been the university activity I’m most proud of.

The whole concept of a radio talent institute was conceived by Dan Vallie and Art Kellar. I wrote more extensively about the program in Radio World and you can read that article here.

Working with Dan Vallie over these past five years has been an incredible experience. No one is more dedicated to “paying it forward” to the next generations than Dan. He has boundless energy and has grown the number of talent institutes in America to five.

inst_map_keller_kbawku_confer_gab_hubbard

 

Expect more radio industry leaders like Kerby Confer and Ginny Hubbard’s Hubbard Broadcasting along with state broadcast associations like the Kentucky Broadcasters Association and the Georgia Association of Broadcasters to sponsor even more locations in the years ahead.

Some of the industry professionals that presented at this year’s institute in Kentucky were Kristin Cantrell-owner/CEO of CapCities Communications and Seven Mountains Media, Mike Keith-the voice of the Tennessee Titans, Christine Hillard-President/COO of Forever Communications, Steve Newberry-President/CEO of Commonwealth Broadcasting, John Ivey-Senior Vice President of Programming iHeartMedia and Program Director of KIIS-FM in Los Angeles, Don Anthony-Publisher, Morning Mouth & Jockline, Creator & Host of Morning Show Boot Camp and Founder & President of Talent Masters, Gary Moore-Air Talent at KLOS in Los Angeles, Bryan Sargent, PM Drive Air Talent at Mix 92.9 in Nashville, John Shomby-Director of Programming at NASH-FM & Charlie Cook-VP/Country at Cumulus Media, Lynn Martin-President of LM Communications, Terry Forcht-Founder, Chairman & CEO of the Forcht Group of Kentucky (a company with 2,400 employees) along with the Presidents of both the Tennessee Association of Broadcasters, Whit Adamson and the Kentucky Broadcasters Association, Henry Lackey.

Thirty-six professional radio broadcasters, two of whom have been awarded the National Radio Award – the highest honor bestowed on a radio broadcaster – by the National Association of Broadcasters shared their passion and performance knowledge.

Every student that has gone through the program has told me it has been the best ten-days of their life and as the director these past four years; I know it has been for me as well.

If you know a student that wants to get into broadcasting, point them in the direction of the National Radio Talent System website  for more information, applications forms, scholarships and the dates/location of the institute nearest to them. Students who apply are thoroughly vetted for acceptance in the program.

Broadcasters looking for air talent, sales talent; digital and video talent should also go to the National Radio Talent System website for a complete listing of graduates that have gone through the program. There they will find each student’s bio and a sample of their on-air work.

I know Dan Vallie is already hard at work on the 2017 radio talent institutes. The radio industry is truly fortunate to have someone of Dan’s vision and action in establishing this innovative radio talent farm system for broadcasters.

46

Dan Vallie

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