Tag Archives: Return On Investment

The Goose Is On Life Support

While commercial radio is working hard to have Congress pass a law mandating AM radio in every vehicle (a vote in the House is scheduled this coming week), the U.S. Supreme Court gave its blessing to the FCC’s expanded interpretation of the lowest unit rate charge for political advertising.

In other words,

Expect to hear a lot more political ads on commercial radio stations!

It’s Not Free Speech to Tell Lies

Ten years ago, SiriusXM suspended conservative talk host Glenn Beck for agreeing with one of his show’s guests, who asked, “what patriot will step up to remove Donald Trump from office if he’s elected president and oversteps his authority?” SiriusXM, operator of America’s two satellite radio services, suspended Beck because they worried the conversation might “be reasonably construed by some to have been advocating harm against an individual currently running for office.”

Yet, political candidates can say anything they darn well please, pay the lowest unit rates for that very airtime, and your FCC licensed local radio station can’t do a thing about it.

Ad Clutter

One of the big turn-offs for radio listeners is “ad clutter”; too many radio ads packed into each hour of the broadcast day.

Political ads are considered by radio listeners to be the worst of the worst, when it comes to advertising on the radio. This type of advertising causes:

  • People to be stressed, annoyed and tired
  • Listeners dislike the hostile tone, name-calling and negative attacks
  • Relentless campaign messaging causes widespread frustration and mental exhaustion

Killing The Golden Goose

You may remember Aesop’s fable of the goose that laid the gold eggs, but in case you forgot, the Cliff Notes version is this: it’s a story about a farmer who discovered one of his geese could lay gold eggs. Not wishing to wait for this bird to lay just one gold egg per day, the farmer decides to cut open this goose and get all the gold eggs at once, only to find there are none. The goose is empty.

Well, once upon a time, owning a radio station was like owning a “golden goose,” where a radio station’s profits were like golden eggs. Every day, through the selling of radio ads for money, big profits were produced for a radio station owner.

Thirty years ago, the Telcom Act of 1996 deregulated radio and allowed buyers to own as many radio stations as they could imagine. Greedy investors and consolidators, not wishing to wait for each day’s golden eggs, cut open their golden geese by firing the very people who produced all the riches; the talented air personalities that broadcast over them.

The moral of Aesop’s fable is if you focus only on the golden eggs and neglect the goose that lays them, you will soon be without the very asset that produces the golden eggs.

Since the era of consolidation, several major U.S. radio broadcasting groups have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (some, more than once), heavily impacted by shifting advertising markets and intensifying competition from digital streaming platforms.

Less Is More

Radio investors probably thought the moral of the fable was, the more geese you own, the more radio ads you add to the hour, the more effective your R.O.I. (Return On Investment) will be. But ironically, it was the principle of “Less Is More” that in the end rules the day.

To be truly effective, you need to maintain the balance of what is produced (golden eggs/revenue) with the producing asset (your goose/radio talent).

The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People

Stephen Covey covers this in his 7 habits book, saying when people fail to respect this critical  balance, “they decrease organizational effectiveness and often leave others with dying geese.”

AM In Every Vehicle Act

The radio industry is once again focusing all of its efforts and treasure on the wrong issue. AM radio is NOT the future.

Coal ain’t coming back

and neither is AM radio.

In an article I wrote back in 2017, I made the case for the radio industry to move towards the future and stop trying to resuscitate the past. You can read that article here: https://dicktaylorblog.com/2017/08/20/coal-aint-coming-back-neither-is-am-radio/

Since A.I. (artificial intelligence) supposedly has all the answers, I put the question to it, and here’s what it said:

“Commercial broadcast radio’s future relies on a high-tech hybrid model driven by cloud virtualization, AI workflow automation, and digital revenue streams, all while fiercely leveraging its core moat: live, hyper-local human connection. While traditional over-the-air spot advertising faces pressure, radio remains a dominant force, particularly in vehicles. The industry is shifting from a pure legacy broadcast model to a multi-platform audio ecosystem.”

So, yes, reaching listeners in their vehicles continues to be important to the radio industry’s future, but NOT the AM RADIO platform. Around the globe, AM radio signals are being turned off, even FM is going away and being replaced by Digital Audio Broadcasting.

The key to the future of broadcasting is to reach listeners on the very platforms THEY use.

Either adapt to change

or get left behind.

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Reflecting on Radio Show 2016

60The radio show was close to home this year, just down the road from my university, in Music City USA, Nashville, Tennessee. Plus, the Tennessee Association of Broadcasters decided to roll their annual convention into an opening event at the Radio Show. So as soon as I finished my morning class, I was on the road to Nashville.

Tennessee Association of Broadcasters Kick-off

Whit Adamson, President/CEO of the TAB, put together an amazing opening reception and event inside the Country Music Hall of Fame. We were welcomed by TN Governor Bill Haslam who declared it “Radio Week” in the State of Tennessee. Then the Mayor of Nashville, Megan Barry, gave us a warm welcome to Nashville where she declared it “Radio Week” in Music City. The “red carpet” was fully rolled out for the radio industry and attendance would set a new record for the Radio Show.

Pillsbury’s Broadcast Finance Forecast Leadership Breakfast

The good news is radio is the “King of Audio.” The bad news is that revenue growth for radio underperformed ad spending post-recession. Radio’s 7% share of all advertising is predicted to decline to 6% by 2019. Why? Digital ad spend will grow significantly (40%) by 2019. And radio will struggle to reach mobile users.

The big takeaways from this session were: Investors want to see new growth catalysts like NextRadio, more event revenue and growth in digital/mobile ad revenues. Investors want no more than 3 to 4 times leverage with more industry consolidation. All of this investors feel will yield more “free cash flow.”

Investors worry about audience fragmentation and Millennial reach, radio’s competition in the car dashboard, the challenges coming from digital/internet, continued uncertainty over royalties and excessive leverage.

Focusing on Your Career Future

The room here was filled with young people. Radio mentors from all areas (except engineering) met with tables full of students and recent graduates to talk about the many opportunities available in today’s radio industry. The mood was once of excitement and enthusiasm.

Brittney Quarles and John Focke both would share their personal radio journeys with students as they shared advice such as: “the industry is small, don’t burn any bridges” and “find a champion for you and your talents” and “be careful who you share your dreams with.” The right mentors are essential to your career.

Beyond Basics – The Prosperous, Professional You

John Bates, Elizabeth Burton and Heather Monahan led a session in how to reach beyond your limits and build a better “Brand You.”

John Bates shared “3 ways to inspire and connect”: 1) logic is not the way, 2) human eyes connect you to another person and 3) be authentic. For example, people don’t connect with your successes, but your messes. You message is your mess. But above all else, “Make A Difference.”

Elizabeth Burton drilled down the importance of your online brand and that today your online activities build your reputation.

Heather Monahan told us that people take only 10-seconds to make an opinion about you when they first meet you. 50% of communication is nonverbal and your attitude is everything. And if you want to know what your personal brand is, ask others this question: “What value do I bring to you?”

The Digital Dash – Improving the Consumer Experience

Fred Jacobs, Steve Newberry and Scott Burnell (from Ford) all shared their perspective on radio in the car. The first big thing is car manufacturers don’t call it a radio in the dash anymore (and probably haven’t for some time) but “the center stack.” Into this part of the dashboard, everything a car owner wants can be accessed.

Steve Newberry (former NAB joint board chairman) really brought the whole issue home with his analysis of the technology revolution by saying there are two kinds of events: disruptive and modifying. Disruptive events would be things like television and FM radio. Modifying events would be things like cassette tapes, CDs and MP3s. Disruptive events change the landscape and prevent an entity from doing things the way they’ve always been done. Television stole radio’s programming and added pictures and radio had to reinvent itself with new kinds of programs. Modifying events such as records being replaced by cassettes and 8-track tape, then CDs replacing both of those to be replaced by MP3s merely modified the way people listened to their own music libraries but not how they used radio. The new digital/internet connected world is a disruptive event and radio needs to once again adapt to this revolution in communication. The future is bright if radio is agile and adapts.

Perception vs. Reality – The True Power of Radio

My first Arbitron rep was Pierre Bouvard. He’s a fountain of information. His presentation on “7 Things Brands Have Completely Wrong About Radio” tells the story in great detail and shows the challenges faced by radio sales people today.

Podcasting

Steve Goldstein did an amazing presentation on podcasting by starting out with this Thomas Edison quote from 1922 “The radio craze will die out in time.”

Today mobile is eating the world. 20% of audio listening comes from the smartphone. For radio, podcasting is all about retention, growth and relevance.

Podcasting is no longer niche. It delivers the demos advertisers want. Podcasting is different than broadcasting. There’s money to be made in podcasting and radio has the perfect megaphone to promote podcasts to its audience. That’s radio’s “secret sauce” that podcasters wish they had access to.

Radio – The Local Media Company of the Future

Gordon Borrell and his research company are doing some incredible studies on the future of advertising. He immediately got the audience’s attention when he said in the last ten years $56 Billion has disappeared in advertising expenditures.

Banner ads are dead. But digital is not.

Local advertising growth is forecast to increase 7.6%, but non-digital will see a 6.9% decline in ad spend and digital will see a 22.4% increase in ad spend. In fact, 2017 is the year that digital advertising will eclipse all traditional media.

Borrell said when advertisers cut ad spend in one medium they spend it in another medium. Radio will continue to be bought, but only those stations who have well-trained representatives that understand the realities of today’s advertising and can put together a total marketing plan that goes beyond simply radio spots. Advertisers will partner with any media company who has reps that listen.

The good news is traditional media – like radio – is still necessary to drive digital advertising goals and deliver maximum digital R.O.I. (Return On Investment).  You can see Gordon’s full PowerPoint deck here.

Final Thought

The mood in the halls and in the sessions at this year’s Radio Show was very upbeat. The things being discussed and presented did not shy away from the realities all ad supported media face.

Anyone who attended came away with lots of action steps that need to be implemented immediately.

Radio currently is the #1 Reach & Frequency medium in the United States of America.

There’s no time to waste. It’s time to roll up our sleeves and “Make A Difference.”

Radio’s future depends on it.

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Millennials vs. Baby Boomers

31The radio world was all a buzz this week when it was announced that Millennials now out-number Baby Boomers.

Well la-te-da.

Let me tell you why that doesn’t really matter.

William Francis Sutton’s Advice to Radio Operators & Advertisers

Sutton was famous for making money, lots of money. Actually, he didn’t really make money as much as he stole money. Sutton stole an estimated $2 Million over his forty year career. And while he denies he originated it, Sutton’s Law states that when diagnosing, one should first consider the obvious. So when Willie Sutton was asked by a reporter why he robbed banks all his life, he replied “because that’s where the money is.”

Boomers Are Where the Money Is

When the Boomers were growing up, rates of productivity and hourly compensation rose in lock-step. Productivity rose 96.7% and hourly compensation rose 91.3%. That changed in 1973. While productivity continued its upward slope, compensation flat-lined; productivity was rising around 75% in the period of 1973 to 2013, wages went up a mere 9%.

Worse, today a college education not only doesn’t guarantee increased earnings, it is more like an economic boat anchor that saddles a Millennial with student loan debt of tens of thousands of dollars as they begin to enter the workforce. Paul Campos wrote in the New York Times that “if over the past three decades car prices had gone up as fast as tuition; the average car would cost more than $80,000.”

Unlike us Baby Boomers, Millennials have come of age at the very moment when economic opportunities are few and far between.

Trading Places in Income

Trading places: The income of younger working-aged families was falling long before the Great Recession and has now been surpassed by the rising incomes of families well into retirement age. (Median Income for Younger and Older Families in Inflation- Adjusted Dollars)

 

Stagnant Income

The average middle-class family today makes the same household income as it did thirty-six years ago. The problem is that today’s heads of household weren’t even born yet. We’re talking about different people. So the advantage of a middle-class family today over one three decades ago has evaporated. That’s if they can even be considered “middle-class” as 61% of Americans considered “middle-class” in 1971 comprise less than 50% of those families today.

Vastly Different Economic Trajectories

In the more recent economic history of America, each new generation would far surpass that of their parents’ in material standard of living. Millennials, and Generation X’ers who came before them, “are falling farther and farther behind their parents’ generation in most measures of economic well-being.” This represents a change being experienced by today’s living generations that is unprecedented in America’s history.

Millennials Number 75.4 Million vs. Baby Boomers at 74.9 Million

Here’s why radio and advertisers shouldn’t be freaking out over the headline that Millennials now out-number Baby Boomers. There may be more of them, but when it comes to discretionary income – the money that buys stuff – Boomers are still your “bank.” Don’t take your eye off the ball.

If Willie Sutton were operating a media company or an advertising agency, he’d be focused on putting his marketing investment where the best R.O.I. (Return On Investment) is, radio and its #1 reach that delivers 93% of Americans every week. It’s the traditional mass media that Boomers grew up with and still use in great numbers. Radio still delivers.

The “Music of YOUR Life” is Now The Rolling Stones

Back in the 1980s, I managed one of the first Al Ham “Music of YOUR Life” radio stations. Next to Rush Limbaugh, this big band based music format was one of two formats that were attracting people back to AM radio. I remember joking that one day, when we Boomers were their age, the music of our life would replace the sounds of Tommy Dorsey and Glenn Miller.

That day is here!

And there’s money to be made.

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Are We Killing the Golden Goose?

25Do you remember Aesop’s fable of the goose that laid the gold eggs? Let me refresh your memory of this tale. It’s about a farmer that was poor. One day he makes a startling discovery when he finds a golden egg in the nest of his pet goose. Skeptical at first, he has the egg tested and finds that it is indeed made of pure gold. Even more amazing, each day this farmer awakes to find that his goose has laid another golden egg. In very short order, this poor farmer becomes fabulously wealthy. But then his wealth brings greed and impatience. No longer satisfied with just one golden egg per day, the farmer cuts open his goose to harvest all of its golden eggs at once only to find the goose is empty inside. With a now dead goose, there will be no more golden eggs laid.

In remembering this fable, it sounded so familiar to the world of radio broadcasting. A radio station was like a wonderful “goose” that laid daily “golden eggs” for many an owner. It was an industry joke that having an FCC broadcast license was like having a license to print money. It was “golden.”

But broadcasters not wishing to wait for each day’s golden egg, cut open their goose with the Telcom Act of 1996. Twenty years ago, this act deregulated radio and now owners, like the farmer cutting open his goose to get all the eggs at once, now could own as many radio stations as they basically wished.

And how did that work out? Not much better than what the farmer discovered.

The moral of Aesop’s fable is if you focus only on the golden eggs and neglect the goose that lays them, you will soon be without the very asset that produces the golden eggs.

The radio industry’s quest for short-term returns, or results, took their free FCC licenses and ruined them by not maintaining the balance between the production of desired results and the production capacity of the asset.

Aesop’s fable is the very principle of effectiveness. It’s a natural law. Like gravity, you don’t have to believe in it or understand its principles, but you can never escape its effects.

Radio broadcasters probably saw the moral of the fable being the more geese you own, the more spots you add to the hour, the more effective your R.O.I. (Return On Investment) will be. But ironically, it was the principle of “Less Is More” that in the end rules the day.

To be truly effective, you need to maintain the balance of what is produced (golden eggs/revenue) and the producing asset (your goose/radio station).

Stephen Covey wrote extensively about all of this in his book “The Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.”

“When people fail to respect the P/PC Balance in their use of physical assets in organizations, they decrease organizational effectiveness and often leave others with dying geese.”

-Stephen Covey

One could certainly make that case for two of America’s largest radio broadcasters today. They are reaping the results of those who’ve gone before them who’ve in essence liquidated the asset, before they took over and now the accounting system appears to show that they are not performing at the level of their predecessors. But is that really the case? Did they in reality inherit a very sick goose when they took over? The debt problem say many who are more schooled in this area of high finance than I, will probably be addressed with a re-set. And once that happens, it will come back to the people of radio.

Covey says to “always treat your employees exactly the way you want them to treat your best customers.” Herb Kelleher at Southwest Airlines built his company on this very Covey principle.

Covey puts it this way: “You can buy a person’s hand, but you can’t buy his heart. His heart is where his enthusiasm, his loyalty is. You can buy his back, but you can buy his brain. That’s where his creativity is, his ingenuity, his resourcefulness.”

The bottom line is the future of radio will be determined by the vision of the people leading the radio industry. It will also be determined by the hiring decisions they make going forward.

“If you hire people just because they can do a job,

they’ll work for your money.

But if you hire people who believe what you believe,

they’ll work for you with blood and sweat and tears.”

-Simon Sinek

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